18 August, 2024
Introduction
Friday, 19th December, 2023. Portugal's back page sports columns contain the usual team news and predictions for the weekend's upcoming fixtures. There is one story, however, that catches the eye.
Following a stint of unemployment after his surprise departure from Liverpool in the summer, Julian Ward has agreed a deal to join Vitória de Guimarães as director of football. He's well known in Portuguese football circles, having previously worked as an analyst and scouting director for the Portuguese national team. Despite this, Ward joining Vitória de Guimarães comes as a bit of a surprise, especially as he's spent the last 13 years working at two of Europe's top clubs.
In fact, Vitória de Guimarães had been surprising a lot of people of late.
Mid-season review
If you couldn't tell, I'm very happy with the appointment of my new director of football. His record at Liverpool speaks for itself, and there's a nice narrative arc to him coming back to Portugal where he started his career as an analyst. At Manchester City, Ward worked as their South American scouting strategist, one of our key recruitment areas and a gold mine I'm expecting him to prospect. He brings with him a wealth of knowledge and experience, both of operating at top clubs but also at negotiating transfer deals that represent excellent value.
With our first transfer window fast approaching, I bit the bullet and brought him in to replace the incumbent Rogerio Matias. As I'm letting the director of football lead transfer and contract negotiations, as well as relying on their recommendations for signings, we needed a top operator in this role and sadly Matias didn't quite cut the mustard. If I was a chairman, I would probably describe it as 'evidence of the ambition and desire we have as a club to achieve success'.
I am surprised that Ward was willing to join us and it feels like a bit of a coup. Maybe he really can see the potential that we have as a club. Maybe he just wants some time in the sun. Or, maybe, it's the outstanding success that head coach Fabio Vieira has brought that tempted him into signing on the dotted line...
It's tight at the top. More importantly, it's Vitória de Guimarães at the top.
We enter the new year unbeaten in the league, with reigning champions Benfica hot on our tail. We've scored in every game we've played in so far and we've looked good doing it. Our 37 goals is enough to rank us third in the competition, but our success owes just as much to our defensive performances.
We have only conceded 7 goals in the Primera Liga, an average of just 0.47 per game.
We've also only faced 14.24 expected goals against, meaning we have stopped almost 50% of the goals we would be expected to concede once a shot is taken. What's more, we top the league for shots against with 91. We are restricting the opposition to few opportunities, and we're very good at stopping the ones they do get.
I think this is largely down to our 3-2-5 shape. We dominate most games in terms of possession with an average of 62%, a figure only beaten by Sporting's 63%. The three man rest defence allows us to easily recycle the ball through the back line rather than give it away needlessly. Because of this, most of the chances we do concede come from counter-attacks. With our shape shifting to three defenders in possession with a high line, we're well placed to stop most of these before they get close to our area.
We are overperforming, but not by that much, and although I expect a regression to the mean at some point I'm confident we can continue to challenge for the top spots.
We're ranked second in the league for expected goals, and we're only overperforming that by around 3. That's good, because it shows that our attacking performances should be sustainable. I expect us to start conceding at some point, and that could be when Bruno Varela is away for the AFCON tournament.
In terms of other competitions, a 4-3 aggregate victory against Club Brugge was enough to qualify for the competition proper. We emerged victorious from a group featuring AZ Alkmaar, Lugano and Qarabağ, with Lugano taking second place. The round of 16 will be drawn in February, where we'll be hoping to continue our good run.
We're through to the fifth round of the Portuguese cup, where we'll face third division Canelas. The Portuguese League Cup is a bit of an oddity, as it features a group phase in the third round. Benfica topped our group, beating us 3-2 in the process, and so our campaign in this competition ends there.
Individuals
Our overall team performance has been great, but there are a few standout players I'd like to highlight.
When AC Milan and Fulham both activated his €20M release clause, I thought it was time to say goodbye to Jota Silva. For whatever reason, he opted to stay, and that's good - he has been integral to our success so far. He averages around one goal involvement in every game he plays in, equally at ease scoring and providing and he's an integral player for the team.
Whilst he's happy to stay and finish what we started, his refusal to sign a new contract will leave me with no option but to move him on in the summer. He might change his mind if we make the Champion's League, but we can't risk losing our highest value player for free.
He'll have no shortage of suitors, but I think we may struggle to get the €20M for him that we would if he had left in the current window. I think a fee of around €12-15M seems about right.
Primera Liga player of the month for December, Tiago Silva, has been impeccable. He tops the league for key passes with 58 and expected assists with 6.82. Only 4 of these have been converted, but that's likely because he is our set piece taker. He's picked up 12 goals across all competitions, and has netted all 5 of his attempts from the penalty spot.
Key to our defensive overperformance has been Mikel Villanueva. If he was better at maintaining possession he could have a full pizza on his chart, but more importantly he's good at everything we need a centre back to be good at - winning the ball often and providing an option to recycle the ball through the back line. He's also a serious threat from set pieces, with six of those seven goals coming from dead ball situations.
The decision between starting Nuno Santos or João Mendes on the left of our attacking trio was not as easy as I had first thought. They're both excellent but they have different profiles, with Mendes having more of an eye for goal and Santos being the more creative player. As the season has gone on and with striker Adrián Butzke earning himself a starting spot over André Silva, more of the creative burden has shifted to the left wing. As such, Santos has taken a more prominent role with aplomb.
The board consider our job untouchable, and the supporters couldn't be happier. Times are rosy at VTSC, but a tough period is approaching. The winter transfer window is open, and several of our key players are attracting interest from big clubs. Bruno Varela will be away with Cape Verde for the African Cup of Nations, and the end of January will see us play Porto, Braga and Famalicão in quick succession.
After a tightly contested 2-1 win in the Minhoto derby against Vizela, the VTSC squad were sent home to see in the new year with their families. Afonso Vieira and his staff, however, had work to do.
Transfer Outgoings
Jorge Fernandes - KRC Genk, €825k
Julian Ward assured me that the €825k fee offered for Jorge Fernandes was above his value and therefore he accepted it on my behalf. The fans and board are both unhappy with him leaving, but he wasn’t performing as well as they seem to think.
All seven of the goals we have conceded have come with Jorge Fernandes on the pitch. Toni Borevković is about as good as him, and we have conceded a total of 0 goals with him in the side. This was also a squad built to set up in a 3-4-3 shape, so we also had an overload of players at centre back. Fernandes leaves, and we can start looking at upgrades to come in over the summer.
Miguel Maga - Southampton, €2.1M
A player I definitely didn't want to let go was Miguel Maga. A young player with a high upside, I would have commanded a higher fee, but I had promised him that he would be sold if a bid of €2M was put forward. Afonso Vieira isn't a man to break his promises, and so when Southampton matched that asking price Miguel Maga was allowed to depart.
As an attacking Wing Back he has performed admirably, stepping in for Bruno Gaspar when required. A solid attacking player in the high percentiles for dribbles and expected assists, he has potential and I hope he shines on the south coast of England.
This deal went though on deadline day, and although I have a list of players to fulfill this role I won't be entering the market for anyone just yet. Bruno Gaspar is first choice here, with youngster Zé Carlos an adequate backup. We'll wait until the summer until I decide whether we need a replacement, when more players are available and transfer fees are more appropriate.
André Silva - Gremio, €2.4M (€3M)
As I mentioned earlier, Adrian Butzke has become our starting striker following a two month injury to André Silva. When Gremio came calling, I was happy for Silva to head back to Brazil.
In truth, I have been disappointed by André Silva's performances. Although I was asking him to play a supporting role, I was expecting a healthy number of goal involvements and with our domination eight isn't quite good enough. He's only scored five league goals from an expected 6.48, and with just a 23% conversion rate. That, coupled with a 71% shot on target ratio, makes me think he's a bit of a tame finisher, and as our tactic has changed I'm looking for our striker to lead the line more.
This deal happened after the end of our window, so I can't sign a direct replacement now. We will stick with Butzke for the time being and hope he continues his rich vein of form, whilst I look for a player who better fits what I want in the summer.
Transfer Incomings
Morgan Rogers - Aston Villa, Loan
We needed depth across our front three, and the offer of a free loan for Morgan Rogers from our affiliate club Aston Villa seemed like a no-brainer.
He's picked up a decent amount of minutes at a club who sit sixth in the Premier League, so Villa clearly think he is good enough to be a squad player for them. He isn't a natural centre forward but his profile aligns nicely with our Creator function. He doesn't score or shoot much, but he should provide a dash of flair and provides well for his teammates.
Additionally, he's a hard worker, not afraid to press the opposition defence and try to win the ball back high up the pitch. Unai Emery has deployed him on both wings and up front this season, primarily as a striker with either the Advanced Forward or Trequartista role. That's likely where he'll play for us, and I have the option of using him on the wings if required.
He could have some issues with consistency, but as a free depth option for 6 months Rogers could prove to be an great acquisition. If not, there's no risk involved.
Ibrahim Diarra - Free
Whilst looking for potential Jota Silva replacements, Julian Ward put forward free agent Ibrahim Diarra. I had no data to work off, so we took him on loan for a month to get a closer look at him.
My coaching staff were impressed, believing that Diarra is operating at a second division level. He's technically gifted, committed and consistent. They think he has a lot of potential, so I was happy to go along with Ward's suggestion and have him offer a contract. Whilst we have no statistics, his attribute spread is good and the intangible qualities of his personality are desirable. At €50k p/a we aren't taking much of a risk if things don't work out, nd he'll slot into the B team to develop.
After a quick google, I found out that he has reportedly been training with the Barcelona youth teams after an impressive performance at the U17 World Cup. He can't join them until he turns 18, and the same goes for us, so like Barcelona we'll keep him on trial until then.
Paulo Vitor - Maguary, End of contract
Mikel Villanueva is firmly first choice at left centre back, and Tomás Ribeiro is a good enough backup. However, with Villanueva approaching the twilight of his career and coveted by Atletico Bilbao, we needed to start looking at replacements.
Paulo Vitor will be joining at the end of his loan at Nacional de Madeira, where he has performed well if not spectacularly. His standout quality is his aerial ability, winning 83% of his aerial duels. He should have no problems adapting and already speaks the language. There are definitely areas for improvement, particularly in terms of winning and losing possession, but in comparison to our current second choice Tomás Ribeiro he isn't far off.
I'm not sure he's good enough on the ball to be running it out of defence, so I'll consider training that trait out of him. He matches our club signing objectives, will make at the very least a capable backup and hopefully he can make good on his potential.
Mor N'diaye - Estoril Praia, €500k (€1.5M)
With Jorge Fernandes gone and Manu Silva now covering two positions, we needed depth in defensive midfield. We have acquired this in the form of Mor N'diaye, who joins us from fellow Portuguese club Estoril Praia. He's good at everything we need our Half Back to do, winning back the ball, playing short simple passes and closing down the opposition out of possession. Although Ward has brought him in as a fringe player, I think he is an upgrade on Manu Silva in this position.
Stylistically, N'diaye is a destroyer, but possesses the technical ability required of our system. He's also a great athlete with a good work rate, strength and stamina. He's a proven player in the Liga Portugal, matches our club vision and also counts towards our home grown registration quota. At 23 he still has room to grow, and I'll be focussing on refining his ability on the ball. His aggressive nature suits our high press, although he does have a tendency to be a bit rough in the challenge and this has earned him six yellow cards this season.
We did pay more than I would've liked for him, a total of €1.5M with €500k up front, but Estoril weren't keen on parting with him halfway through the season. The upside to this is that of our targets he demanded the lowest wage at just €125k p/a, affording us the opportunity to upgrade here in the summer if required.
Going Forward
I think we're set for a rebuild in the summer, both in terms of backroom staff and players. With Ward in place we have a solid foundation, but we need to upgrade across our coaching staff and recruitment team with a new head of youth development and assistant manager being a priority. A lot of staff contracts run out in the summer, and I've been building up a list of potential replacements.
There's a core group of the playing squad that I intend to keep, but we do have several positions we need to strengthen in. A lot will depend on both the players that depart and where we finish in the league. If we make the Champion's League, that opens up a new calibre of player that wouldn't have been interested in joining us before.
I'll continue to work with Ward and the recruitment team to build a pool of targets to pick from, and I've already got a few key targets in mind. I'll likely split the next update in two, with one instalment being a review of our season and in-depth analysis of our tactics, and another walking through my reasoning behind any new players we bring in. That avoids the post becoming too long, but it also lets me really hone in on my decision making.
I've also been planning for my FM25 save, which will use this one as a blueprint. I've learned a lot so far in terms of data and analysis, but also in setting up a save to play in this way. As an example, when I started it, I didn't have Argentina and Brazil on full detail level, an oversight on my part which could affect our transfer business in the summer. Think of this as a trial run.
Teething problems aside, this save has been fantastic so far. Obviously it's great that we're doing well, but it's also revitalised my love for this game. I would've overlooked a player like Mor N'diaye before, and he's a great example of how my approach has changed. I've never spent so much time agonising over different players and their merits, and I've even spent time going to watch my targets play to see if my assumptions were correct. There's a lot more to come, both in the dwindling lifespan of FM24 and beyond.
Thank you for reading, and I'll be back in the near future when I've finished the first season. Fingers crossed we can keep hold of the top spot!
FM Patrick
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